Warming dominates over circulation slowdown in reducing marine carbon storage under high-mitigation scenarios

Nature Climate Change, Published online: 30 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02687-wThe ocean absorbs a vast amount of carbon dioxide, mitigating climate change. The projected decrease in this absorption is often attributed to a global-warming-induced slowdown in circulation, but analysis using a mechanistic carbon decomposition and attribution framework reveals that the carbon cycle response depends on the emissions trajectory — with warming dominating under low-emission, high-mitigation scenarios.