Apekshita Varshney, founder of the HeatWatch initiative, explains why heat deaths in India are undercounted, who is most at risk, and what the country is still getting wrong.
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Q&A: ‘Even the idea that heat can kill is still quite contentious’
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**Extreme heat stress in India threatens the long-term permanence of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) by undermining the ecological and social stability required for LULUCF projects. **
- Rising ambient temperatures exacerbate the urban heat island effect, leading to localized biodiversity loss and the degradation of heat-sensitive micro-ecosystems.
- The failure to accurately track heat mortality masks the true climate vulnerability of local communities, which are essential for the long-term stewardship of carbon sequestration projects.
- Persistent thermal stress increases the risk of carbon reversals in forestry and land-use projects through heightened wildfire frequency and vegetation die-off.
Market & Policy Outlook
**The lack of standardized heat mortality data represents a critical failure in robust quantification, creating significant pricing blind spots for physical risk and labor productivity in global supply chains. **
- Inaccurate mortality tracking violates the 'Robust Quantification' principles of the ICVCM CCPs, as the social co-benefits of adaptation projects cannot be verified without baseline data.
- Market pricing for resilience-linked bonds and 'Social Carbon' credits is skewed by the undercounting of heat impacts, leading to the misvaluation of climate-adjusted sovereign risk.
- Corporate compliance with SBTi and TCFD disclosures is compromised as Scope 3 risks related to labor safety in extreme heat remain largely unquantified and under-reported.
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