Hawaiian Islands brace for Lala this weekend » Yale Climate Connections

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Unprecedented extreme weather events in Hawaii threaten critical terrestrial and coastal Blue Carbon sinks, exacerbating ecological vulnerability and permanence risks for regional LULUCF initiatives. **

• Extreme precipitation of up to 25 inches and storm surges pose severe flash flooding and soil erosion hazards to endemic Hawaiian biodiversity and intact montane ecosystems.
• Severe runoff and sediment deposition jeopardize nearshore marine habitats, threatening local Blue Carbon sequestration capacity and coral reef stability.
• Accelerating acute physical climate shocks weaken the ecological resilience necessary for long-term biomass stability and baseline carbon storage.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Escalating hurricane frequencies directly challenge the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles regarding non-permanence, stress-testing standard carbon project buffer pools. **

• Physical reversal risks from unprecedented weather patterns will force carbon standard-setters to revise buffer pool sizing and risk assessment models aligned with ICVCM CCPs.
• Voluntary carbon market pricing will increasingly demand risk-adjusted discounts for coastal and island-based Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) susceptible to physical climate shocks.
• Corporates navigating SBTi climate risk disclosures and supply chain continuity must evaluate severe Scope 3 physical asset risks and associated asset impairment in vulnerable geographic corridors.