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Five things you need to know about El Niño’s likely comeback
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**The resurgence of El Niño threatens to destabilize terrestrial and marine carbon sinks by inducing extreme thermal stress and precipitation anomalies that compromise natural sequestration capacity. **
- Marine heatwaves associated with El Niño are projected to trigger widespread coral bleaching, significantly impacting the health and carbon storage potential of Blue Carbon ecosystems.
- Shifted rainfall patterns increase the vulnerability of tropical forests to wildfires, potentially converting critical LULUCF sinks into net emission sources.
- Warming-induced ecosystem stress challenges the 'permanence' requirement of carbon projects, as prolonged droughts threaten the multi-decadal survival of reforestation initiatives.
Market & Policy Outlook
**Climatic volatility from El Niño creates significant financial risk for carbon markets, likely necessitating the activation of ICVCM-aligned buffer pools to cover project reversals. **
- Extreme weather events may disrupt the verification schedules of Article 6.4 projects, leading to delayed issuance of credits and increased market volatility.
- Supply-side shocks in Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are expected to drive up price premiums for credits that carry the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) label, reflecting higher demand for high-integrity, resilient assets.
- Corporations pursuing SBTi-validated pathways face heightened Scope 3 risks as El Niño-driven droughts impact global agricultural supply chains and land-sector emission targets.
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