El pronóstico para el Pacífico oriental indica un 70% de probabilidad de entre 15 y 22 tormentas con nombre, de las cuales se espera que entre 9 y 14 se conviertan en huracanes, incluyendo entre 5 y 9 huracanes mayores.
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Yale Climate Connections
El Niño podría traer huracanes fuertes al occidente de México esta temporada
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**Increased frequency of severe El Niño-driven hurricanes in Western Mexico poses an immediate threat to coastal Blue Carbon and forestry assets, creating high permanence risks for regional sequestration. **
- Extreme windward impacts threaten critical mangrove ecosystems along the Pacific coast, leading to immediate biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation.
- Severe physical damage to forestry projects registered under LULUCF mechanisms risks triggering involuntary carbon reversal events.
- Storm surges and coastal erosion degrade the soil integrity of blue carbon sinks, jeopardizing long-term ecological stability and natural recovery capacities.
Market & Policy Outlook
**The projected surge in major hurricanes challenges ICVCM CCP permanence criteria, likely driving up insurance buffer pools and discounting the market value of Mexican nature-based offsets. **
- Registries face regulatory pressure to adjust buffer-pool requirements to align with the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) regarding physical risk mitigation.
- Increased threat profile of projects in the Pacific corridor may depress financial liquidity and discount prices for Mexican ITMOs under Article 6.2 frameworks.
- Corporate buyers seeking SBTi alignment will face higher due-diligence burdens to verify the climate resilience of their Scope 3 offsetting portfolios.
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