Nature Climate Change, Published online: 13 March 2026; doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02584-2The response of soil carbon to warming is critical feedback that has been difficult to constrain. This study uses a long-term experiment to show that precipitation modulates microbial and therefore carbon dynamics; drought leads to carbon loss with warming, but wet conditions increase soil carbon.
BackDrought amplifies warming-induced soil carbon loss in a decade-long experiment
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Ecosystem Impact
The synergistic effect of drought and rising temperatures accelerates the conversion of terrestrial carbon sinks into atmospheric carbon sources. This degradation of soil organic matter undermines microbial biodiversity and reduces the moisture-retention capacity of the soil, potentially leading to long-term desertification and the collapse of local plant-based carbon storage.
Systemic Reality
These findings challenge the reliability of nature-based solutions in global carbon markets and necessitate a downward revision of terrestrial sequestration projections in climate models. This shift likely forces a policy transition toward more aggressive industrial decarbonization targets as the perceived safety net provided by natural soil sinks diminishes.
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