Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate...
Back to Climate News
Carbon Brief
DeBriefed 17 April 2026: Fossil-fuel power slumps | ‘Super’ El Niño warning | Afghanistan’s climate struggle
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**The forecasted 'Super' El Niño poses a catastrophic threat to the permanence of terrestrial carbon stocks, potentially triggering massive reversals in LULUCF projects globally. **
- Extreme heat and drought cycles expected from El Niño significantly increase wildfire frequency, threatening the 'Permanence' criterion of ICVCM's Core Carbon Principles for forest-based offsets.
- Afghanistan’s ecological fragility highlights the critical failure of localized adaptation, where climate-induced degradation outpaces current carbon sequestration capacity in arid zones.
- Marine ecosystem volatility during 'Super' El Niño events threatens the stability of Blue Carbon projects, particularly mangrove and seagrass biomes sensitive to thermal stress.
Market & Policy Outlook
**The structural slump in fossil-fuel power signals a decisive market pivot toward I-RECs and high-integrity removals, though climate volatility risks inflating credit risk premiums. **
- Decreasing fossil-fuel generation accelerates the 'Stranded Assets' narrative, pushing institutional investors toward SBTi-aligned decarbonization pathways and Article 6.4 mechanism readiness.
- The volatility of 'Super' El Niño creates significant pricing pressure on ITMOs (Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes) as host nations face internal pressure to retain credits for NDC achievement.
- Market compliance frameworks like LEED and B Corp are increasingly incorporating climate resilience metrics to account for the physical risks identified in Afghanistan and other high-vulnerability regions.
This story moves you. Here's what you can do.
Related Resources
Sourcing:
Contact our trading desk for customized environmental commodities for your needs
Request sourcing: Article 6.2 (ITMOs)