At least 15 dead as Philippines hit by twice London’s annual rainfall in just nine days | The Independent

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Extreme precipitation events in the Philippines threaten the physical integrity of local habitats and severely compromise the permanence of regional nature-based carbon stocks. **

• Severe flooding and runoff induce acute soil erosion, biodiversity loss, and habitat fragmentation across affected coastal and terrestrial ecosystems.
• Extreme weather shocks heighten reversal risks for local LULUCF and Blue Carbon projects, directly testing buffer pool adequacy under ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs).
• Repeated deluge events disrupt watershed dynamics and soil health, undermining long-term environmental stability and natural carbon sink capacity.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Severe climate-induced disasters elevate regional physical risk profiles, forcing carbon markets and policy frameworks to reprice permanence and adaptation mandates. **

• Host countries are incentivized to tighten national adaptation policies and integrate severe risk adjustments into host-nation accounting for Article 6.2 and 6.4 ITMO transfers.
• Market pricing for regional nature-based credits will reflect higher risk premiums, driving increased demand for insurance mechanisms and strict ICVCM CCP-aligned permanence assurances.
• Corporations seeking Scope 3 decarbonization and SBTi alignment face heightened supply chain vulnerabilities and must re-evaluate physical climate risks within their offset portfolios.