As Deforestation Falls in Brazil, It Surges in Neighboring Bolivia - Yale E360

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Transboundary leakage driven by Brazilian anti-deforestation enforcement is accelerating severe tropical forest degradation and carbon loss across Bolivia. **

• Cross-border land conversion for agricultural expansion degrades critical LULUCF carbon sinks and Amazonian biodiversity hotspots.
• Rapid canopy fragmentation risks irreversible biogenic carbon stock loss and severe loss of habitat connectivity.
• Shifting agricultural frontiers threaten long-term hydrological stability and microclimate resilience across southern Amazon ecosystems.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Cross-border leakage exposes structural vulnerabilities in carbon accounting, directly challenging ICVCM Core Carbon Principles regarding leakage and permanence. **

• Regulatory arbitrage between neighboring jurisdictions severely complicates national ITMO transfers and Article 6.2 framework integrity.
• Corporate buyers face elevated Scope 3 supply chain risks and potential SBTi non-compliance due to embedded deforestation in commodities.
• Unmitigated leakage undermines market pricing and credit rating valuations for regional Nature-Based REDD+ projects.